October 23, 2007

Methodology of Player Adjusted Rankings

Update: 10/30/2007

Ok, so aside from the comments posted, I’ve received numerous emails /questions, both positive and negative and everywhere in between. So here is my response. I am posting this in the comments section as well.
 
Yes I agree, my initial reasoning of what I am attempting to quantify was vague: “players who help their team the most.” So I now will attempt to clarify: My goal is to identify undervalued players (not in the salary sense, as there will always be a large discrepancy between players and salaries when compared to other players across the league, just due to timing and other business circumstances), but rather in the underutilized sense, and the give-this-guy-some-props sense. Since this ranking is on a per minute basis, there should be guys who average better team stat numbers per minute, than the star of some teams. Every fan can identify with the “why doesn’t coach play this player more?!” stance. For Bulls fans last year, it was Tyrus Thomas. Coach Skiles, in my opinion, thoroughly underused him. And sure enough, he makes the list from last year about halfway down. The chart itself will include players who are not undervalued, i.e. stars who get a lot of playing time, only if they deserve it. So you see Steve Nash up top. He got a lot of minutes last year. No argument here. He should, according to this list. Then you see Tyrus Thomas on the list. He didn’t get a lot of minutes last year. Maybe he should have. Those are the things I’m trying to get at. Maybe I’ll even include a column that displays total minutes played, or minutes per game.
 
One adjustment that I’d like to make to the formula, is to add one component, as suggested by cj samms’ comment (I wish I had his email address or site). I will incorporate the +- of the team’s success while that player is on the floor. Because of the other little things that don’t make any stat sheet, this will give us another insight as to the rankings. I will incorporate some on-court / off-court stats from 82games.com , to see how the overall team performs while a certain player is on the court. However, I should note that stat alone does not paint an accurate picture for my quest, because certain players are pulled in and out of games as part of a normal rotation, which may include “bench player A” coming into the lineup only when “star player A” is also in, and of course the team’s production with “bench player A” in the game will be high as a result of “star player A.” Thus, I will include this team stat only as one factor in the formula.  Thanks for all of your comments.  -MPL

 

 

For starters, the inspiration for creating this ranking was the lack of Bulls individual players on Hollinger's projected ranking system for the upcoming 2007-2008 season.  I wanted to see what it would be like if I tweaked the numbers.  The numbers below reward players who help their team, as opposed to just individually pouring in points.

Each week, I'll compile stats from all players from nba.com, and put together a rank that represents cumulatively each player's performance thus far this year.  The stats I took into account include points/FGM, total rebounds, offensive rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, FT%, 3pt FG made, FG%, minutes played, games played.

They are not all weighted equally. Not even remotely.  The Player Adjusted Rankings is all about players who help their team win.  Assists, Blocked Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Steals, and Turnovers are all heavily weighted.  Points are moderately weighted, but not as much as the other categories.  Most of the stats are on a per minute basis, and some on a per game basis.  Here are the top 100 rankings if my formula was applied to last year's complete regular season statistics.  To prove my point of the list being weighted to those who help their team, Kobe Bryant is #21 on this list, whereas interestingly enough, Ben Wallace is #13. Only players who played at least 40 games AND 500 minutes were included.

 Player Adjusted Rankings formula applied to the 2006-2007 Regular Season Statistics

Rank Player Team Position PAR
1 Nash, Steve Pho PG 20.389
2 Kidd, Jason Njn PG 20.350
3 Davis, Baron Gsw PG 20.067
4 Wade, Dwyane Mia SG 19.842
5 Camby, Marcus Den C 19.391
6 Paul, Chris Nor PG 19.259
7 Duncan, Tim San PF 19.012
8 Brand, Elton Lac PF 18.227
9 Ford, T.J. Tor PG 18.154
10 Okafor, Emeka Cha C 18.055
11 Garnett, Kevin Min PF 17.994
12 Mcgrady, Tracy Hou SG 17.972
13 Wallace, Ben Chi C 17.651
14 Gasol, Pau Mem PF 17.313
15 Arenas, Gilbert Was PG 17.233
16 Millsap, Paul Uta SF 17.201
17 Tinsley, Jamaal Ind PG 17.197
18 James, Lebron Cle SF 17.185
19 Williams, Deron Uta PG 17.047
20 Smith, Josh Atl SF 16.932
21 Bryant, Kobe Lal SG 16.860
22 Boozer, Carlos Uta PF 16.825
23 Ilgauskas, Zydrun Cle C 16.761
24 Calderon, Jose Tor PG 16.652
25 Billups, Chauncey Det PG 16.290
26 Miller, Andre Phi PG 16.220
27 Marion, Shawn Pho PF 16.213
28 Jefferson, Al Bos C 16.132
29 Carter, Vince Njn SG 16.100
30 Nowitzki, Dirk Dal PF 15.975
31 Anthony, Carmelo Den SF 15.965
32 O'Neal, Jermaine Ind C 15.953
33 Biedrins, Andris Gsw C 15.884
34 Knight, Brevin Cha PG 15.794
35 Ginobili, Manu San SG 15.786
36 Rodriguez, Sergio Por PG 15.757
37 Foster, Jeff Ind C 15.724
38 Lee, David Nyk SF 15.635
39 Mcdyess, Antonio Det PF 15.375
40 Bosh, Chris Tor PF 15.332
41 Chandler, Tyson Nor C 15.321
42 Gooden, Drew Cle PF 15.174
43 Artest, Ron Sac SF 15.172
44 Wallace, Gerald Cha SF 15.156
45 Balkman, Renaldo Nyk SF 15.144
46 Butler, Caron Was SF 15.128
47 Richardson, Jason Gsw SG 15.128
48 Aldridge, Lamarcu Por C 15.088
49 Watson, Earl Sea PG 15.074
50 Hinrich, Kirk Chi PG 15.061
51 Ming, Yao Hou C 15.052
52 Mutombo, Dikembe Hou C 15.020
53 Webber, Chris Det PF 15.018
54 Turiaf, Ronny Lal PF 14.983
55 Iverson, Allen Den PG 14.938
56 Cassell, Sam Lac PG 14.876
57 Thomas, Tyrus Chi SF 14.840
58 Allen, Ray Sea SG 14.825
59 Mohammed, Nazr Det C 14.787
60 Rondo, Rajon Bos PG 14.784
61 Thomas, Etan Was PF 14.717
62 Felton, Raymond Cha PG 14.687
63 Stoudemire, Amare Pho C 14.662
64 Patterson, Ruben Mil SF 14.640
65 Blatche, Andray Was PF 14.630
66 Livingston, Shaun Lac PG 14.614
67 Diop, Desagana Dal C 14.583
68 Varejao, Anderson Cle PF 14.498
69 Williams, Mo Mil PG 14.491
70 Parker, Tony San PG 14.475
71 Randolph, Zach Por PF 14.423
72 Howard, Dwight Orl PF 14.422
73 Kirilenko, Andrei Uta SF 14.344
74 Armstrong, Darrel Ind PG 14.268
75 Terry, Jason Dal PG 14.189
76 Howard, Josh Dal SF 14.169
77 Hayes, Chuck Hou SF 14.121
78 Bonner, Matt San PF 14.119
79 Haywood, Brendan Was C 14.107
80 Hilario, Nene Den PF 14.080
81 Stoudamire, Damon Mem PG 14.079
82 West, David Nor PF 14.039
83 Evans, Reggie Den PF 14.023
84 Iguodala, Andre Phi SG 14.018
85 Dalembert, Samuel Phi C 13.990
86 Jamison, Antawn Was PF 13.942
87 Barnes, Matt Gsw SF 13.931
88 Pachulia, Zaza Atl C 13.908
89 Milicic, Darko Orl C 13.872
90 Lewis, Rashard Sea SF 13.854
91 Humphries, Kris Tor SF 13.844
92 Odom, Lamar Lal PF 13.783
93 Gadzuric, Dan Mil C 13.722
94 Walton, Luke Lal SF 13.675
95 Barbosa, Leandro Pho PG 13.641
96 Bynum, Andrew Lal C 13.617
97 Pierce, Paul Bos SF 13.616
98 Boykins, Earl Mil PG 13.602
99 Ridnour, Luke Sea PG 13.580
100 Horry, Robert San PF 13.577

By Mike

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